Central, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

774
FXUS64 KLIX 052326
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
626 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Starting off with this afternoon and taking a glance at the
synoptic overview shows mainly quiet/calm conditions across the
area, dominated by weak mid-level flow and subtle/weak high at the
surface. To our NW, a well-defined front, associated with a deep
sub 990mb surface low north of the Great Lakes contains much
cooler/drier air filtering into the northern US which
(thankfully) will be headed our way this weekend, but more about
that shortly. The 12Z KLIX RAOB and 12Z HRRR forecast soundings
shows plenty of dry air in the low to mid-troposphere, all above a
well-mixed dry adiabatic mixed layer. Just enough
moisture/positive buoyancy residing at/above the LCL to produce a
cumulus field, but the aforementioned dry air aloft supported by
compressional warming is keeping a lid on vertical development.
Meanwhile aloft in the upper-levels, a strong ridge centered over
north-central MX and deep troughing over the northern US will
surge moisture east, in the form of upper-level clouds/cirrus
overnight into tomorrow. Should`nt cause much, if any issues with
temperatures but something to keep note of. No adjustments to
temperatures this afternoon into tonight were needed.

Going into Saturday, the front approaches the area steadily with
time from the north entering out area. Seeing recent HRRR runs
sprinkle a few pop-up showers/storms here and there which was
reflected by the latest 13Z NBM (HRRR higher weight) with 15-25%
PoP`s. Taking a closer look, appears plausible given an increase
in low-level moisture and attendant frontogenetic lift to squeeze
out a couple of showers or storms, moreso collocated to regions
of best/greatest mesoscale forcing (any seabreeze/lakebreeze
development aiding in sfc confluence). Definitely won`t rain
everywhere, but something to keep in mind. Again, no adjustments
needed as Saturday is looking like a nice day! KLG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Sunday into early next week, the aforementioned front
slows/stalls into the northern/central Gulf, allowing much drier
even cooler air to continue to filter into the region. Ah yes,
the moment we`ve been waiting for as many are eager for the first
signs of fall! It`s looking notably more comfortable, particularly
Monday and Tuesday as the bulk of the driest air builds into the
region. Did apply a very subtle lower bias in temperatures Monday
and Tuesday morning, to account for recent NBM bias as we`re
peaking into the first signs of a seasonal transition, still
bringing many into the low to mid 60`s especially along the
I-10/12 corridor on north. Additionally, did apply a minor
lowering to dewpoints during the afternoon to account for peak
afternoon PBL mixing within this dry airmass, making MinRH`s
reach the mid to lower 30`s across the northern half of the area
both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Without a doubt, it`ll feel
different albeit highs still reaching the upper 80`s to low 90`s.
The continued higher sun angle will still feel hot in the sun, but
mornings/evenings will be very pleasant with the lower humidity.
No further adjustments required beyond into the long range. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

All forecast terminals VFR at forecast issuance. There have been
isolated SHRA along sea and lake breezes, with most currently
between KHUM and KBTR. Echo tops haven`t gotten much above the
freezing level, so no TSRA anticipated, and the SHRA should
dissipate with the loss of surface heating. VFR overnight, with
the possible exception of KMCB, where MVFR to IFR conditions will
be possible briefly around sunrise. Isolated SHRA expected in
association with a frontal passage tomorrow, but probably not much
more than VCSH justified.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Generally weak easterly to southeasterly flow will continue across
marine areas through the next few days into Saturday. On Sunday, a
front will pass through marine waters introducing gusty winds from
the northeast on the order of 10-15kts for all marine areas, with
gusts up to 20 to 25 knots which will likely reach Small Craft
exercise caution criteria Sunday and Monday, and could briefly touch
Advisory criteria especially early Monday. Waves/seas will respond
to around 2-3ft for protected waters to 3-6ft for outer Gulf waters.
Conditions improve going int on the middle of next week with
progressive easterly flow, albeit still breezy at around 10-15kts
which will keep waves/seas slightly elevated at 1-2ft for protected
waters to 2-4ft for outer Gulf waters. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  89  68  87 /  10  20   0  10
BTR  73  92  71  90 /   0  20   0  10
ASD  70  91  70  90 /   0  20   0  10
MSY  76  93  76  92 /   0  20   0  10
GPT  72  91  72  91 /   0  20   0  10
PQL  70  92  70  91 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...KLG